#10, what happens next?

After 9 weeks of TWC, today we shifted our focus to Technology Assessment and Forecasting. With all the uncertainty associated with the future, and with technology augmenting our capabilities, are we able to use the technology at our disposal today to try and forecast and predict what could possibly happen?

In Prof’s opening remarks for today’s lecture he briefly went through some of the key drivers for Technology Assessment and Forecasting. The idea of exponential growth is very intriguing, and its occurrence was revisited subtly during the third oral presentation on how work has changed — our progress in the past twenty years has been incredible. And this growth is one that will keep increasing exponentially! Even as we have doubts on what we can achieve in the next ten to twenty years, we could very well be swallowing our own words when the futuristic world does happen in a shorter span of time than we expect.

Next, the above video on the top three inventions for the future also mentioned the discovery of saltwater fuel. Although accidental, I think this may really have the potential to change the world. Seawater, after all, is relatively abundant, and renewable (since it is replenishable by rainwater), so could it be a solution to our energy problems? I think it may very well be, if it were able to be implemented on a larger scale. It could be an intermediate source of energy while the quest for alternative energies continues. The fact that it was an accidental discovery is even more surprising. I would definitely have loved to hear the class’s opinion on some of the other innovations mentioned in the video as well!

Perhaps no lesson emphasised the overarching principle of the whole module as much as today’s, and that is that change is inevitable. “The only constant we have is change” is a phrase that has been over-quoted. We must anticipate changes or at the very least, be alert and prepared to react and respond to these.

Also covered today was the use of megatrends to aid us in forecasting, along with other tools such as technology roadmapping as mentioned by a presenter today. In addition, one forecasting tool alone is insufficient, given each method’s own pros and cons. And even then, forecasting has its own limitations — we cannot expect reality to fully match that of our predictions. We must remain vigilant to unexpected events that may change, and will probably need to frequently review our forecasts, tweaking them as we gain more knowledge of what may or may not happen.

7.5/10.

#9, for the future

Having covered mostly where technology has led us so far, today’s session on Emerging Technologies diverted our focus to the future. The future holds a wealth of interesting possibilities, many of which were covered by both Prof and the day’s student presenters.

Prof showed us several eye-opening videos today that introduced me to plenty of new ideas, with claytronics and plastic electronics among them. The former, I feel, is very likely to revolutionise design and expression, by bringing almost to life and adding a crucial dimension to concepts via 3D models that are highly interactive. This would really strengthen the effectiveness of visual aids by allowing the user to “create objects on the fly”. Plastic electronics would add a new cheaper, lighter option for electronics that traditionally use silicon. While I feel this is probably more of an evolutionary change, plastic electronics are likely to still be a great introduction to the industry, especially for products that emphasise weight and portability.

One aspect of emerging techs that always fascinates me, though, is artificial intelligence (AI), and an application of it (together with robotics) was exemplified in a video showcasing how two university students had come up with “The Perfect Woman” in the form of a robot named Lisa. Lisa responds to humans, speaking realistically, giving massages, and allegedly never argues (back) in a proclamation of her best quality as well. While not yet perfect, the robot’s invention is a definite hint of what is still yet to come not from the convergence of different aspects of technology, as also mentioned in class today.

With this, it’s easy to see that the speed of development is likely to be exponential. Notwithstanding the effective combinations of multiple developments, we also create new technologies that help us acquire more sophisticated innovations, accelerating the development processes for the latter. What may seem inconceivable today may well be a very certain reality in the near future as science and technology continue to surprise even the most cynical of sceptics. After all, as reiterated many times today, today is the future of yesterday — many of the things we take for granted as fixtures in modern society would have been unthinkable to our ancestors and predecessors. The limits of our capabilities are as far as our imagination and visions allow, as ideas are the first stepping stone to making our dreams reality.

This session also touched on and saw some discussion on augmented reality, which is defined as taking virtual graphics from a display to integrate them into real-world environments. As explained in the video, augmented reality bridges the gap between the Internet and reality, with software that aids in everyday decision-making in a simple, user-friendly way. The idea is that anybody with a smartphone can use the equipped camera to photograph products or places to obtain information about them. Essentially, AR adds layers of information to our surroundings without us having the need to manually search the Internet for the data we need. An iPhone app called Google Goggles has already been made available with the intention to help users to find out more about things that may not be as easy to describe in words. And with the right development of AR, it’s increasingly likely that we may soon have access to other devices with such technology, such as actual goggles or glasses equipped with displays instead of just the smartphone. Personally, I am especially keen to own such an app of my own — imagine how much more convenient things would be (even though yes, we already live very comfortably with easy access to data in this Information Age)! The way with which in streamlines the retrieval of information is incredible. Below is a video on the current ability of Google Goggles. While it is not yet perfect, the recognition technology still blows me away.

All in all today’s session reminded me of the wonders of technology, as it clarified what we, living in 2011, may aspire to in the future instead of examining how far we’ve come, as we have in the course so far. Looking forward to next week’s lesson on forecasting, and I’d rate today an 8/10.

#8, solar farming

I’ve always liked cartoons, because they often make particular issues a lot more interesting and easier to understand. They also bring across certain messages in simpler, more direct ways, like the very quirky video below, which this week’s class opened with:

With plain facts about the current situation with global warming, the clip urges viewers to make a change and also led us in to the day’s session on Energy & World Change.

Another video that captured my interest was one presenting a 300 year history of renewable energy, especially since I had never given any particular thought to the nature of energy sources before more modern times. It was surprising to learn that renewable sources once constituted 100% or all of our energy sources before and in the 1700s before people realised it was no longer sufficient for their growing energy needs. A switch to fossil fuels such as coal subsequently paved the way for the steam engine to kickstart the Industrial Revolution later on.

It was also very enlightening for me when Prof shared the sheer amount of energy we actually can draw upon from nature, be it solar energy, wind energy, or energy from biomass, all of which far surpass the planet’s needs. It’s a real pity to think that there is so much energy just waiting to be tapped upon, but so little people have recognised this. And even when they do, as people have in the past year or two, they do not realise just how important it is for us to protect our planet even though there may seem to be more immediate obstacles to clear. Plenty of reasons and excuses are being thrown out, and while it may seem that certain countries are heading in the right direction (eg. Singapore encouraging the concept of reduction, which merely slows down the rate of resource depletion), they are still not quite adopting the most ideal approach (sustainability in finding methods to create our own sources, in a way).

Apart from that, the lesson made me realise that a huge reason behind the resistance to switch from traditional sources of energy to renewable alternatives is that doing so requires a serious commitment. Switching the very way we obtain energy requires us to recognise our reliance on fossil fuels and that since this is not sustainable, we need to find alternative ways of fulfilling our energy needs. Secondly, this also warrants significant investment in the form of major infrastructural changes, as shown in Germany’s mass installation of solar panels (“Germany’s Solar Experiment“). Without solid commitment from government bodies to implement such drastic changes, little can be done.

It was reiterated many times during the session that we definitely have the capability to embark on the road towards sustainable living. The real question was, what will it take for people to take the first step on that road? Prof emphasised that it was all about creating the incentives to motivate people and effect that change in the right direction, which makes a lot of sense. The modern world can easily consider itself highly able technologically, and Mother Nature herself has provided us with plenty of sun and wind to be potentially utilised to meet our energy needs in a green way. Another problem comes in terms of how much incentives should be given, and what are the right incentives that will be effective enough to make a difference? It would have been great to hear more about this as well, even if only a little.

8.5/10.

topical review paper: draft

[Note: Cover, table of contents, and acknowledgements excluded for the purposes of this post. This post may continue to be edited for clarity/neatness of references.]

Executive Summary

Video games are a definite fixture in the recreational lives of many today. But while they bring many of us delight, video games have been blasted as detrimental to health and promoting teenage violence. So are video games and related technologies a boon or a bane? And looking at the development of gaming technology, what does this entail for our entertainment options, both past and present? Beginning with a historical overview of play, this paper will attempt to show and discuss the current situation of leisure activities and also consider the future of the gaming industry.

Background/Introduction

“All work and no play makes Jack a dull boy.” This oft-quoted adage highlights the importance of play in our lives. Both children and adults require some sort of leisure in their lives against school and work respectively, and our leisure options have been broadened significantly and transformed with time thanks to technology.

How do we define play in the first place? In general, play refers to how we prefer to enjoy our free time when we are not performing daily, necessary activities such as working, sleeping, and attending classes. It may be interpreted broadly, including how young children explore their surroundings, pursuing hobbies, and any form of recreational activity/ies.

An increasingly popular form of play in modern societies is the video game. Its introduction has made an undeniable impact on our choices of recreation, with it being hard to challenge the prevalence of video games in the lives of many Generation Y[1] youths. The main reason for this appears to be increasing global affluence, which puts more and more computers and game consoles into the homes of many in the developed world. The booming gaming industry of today is merely one sign of how they remain popular among consumers.

In addition, compared to lifestyles from as recent as a few decades ago, where children contended themselves with simple toys like balls, their counterparts in the present day have an incredible smorgasbord of options when it comes to play. And with the speed at which technology is advancing and gaming giants vying for a greater share of the market, consumers continue to be spoilt for choice with the availability of handhelds like Sony’s PlayStation Portable (PSP) and gaming consoles such as the Nintendo Wii and Microsoft’s Xbox360. As is obvious, video games have become a prominent form of entertainment to many in developed societies.

Yet these games come with both positive and negative implications for users as well. While video games enhance our virtual experiences and offer an escape from work and stress, many argue that health and social problems can arise from playing too much. As they are widely available, and likely to remain so, society must be able to manage the impacts of playing video games such that they remain enjoyable without causing any problems.

Looking ahead, at the speed at which technology improves and continues to do so, the future looks as though gamers can look forward to many more fascinating developments coming their way, leaving many spoilt for choice. All of these will be covered later in the paper.

Historical Perspective

Before video games were introduced, the world had very different avenues of leisure. Books, and later television, were popular choices for both the young and old. Children contented themselves with dolls, balls, and whatever they could find around them. Plenty in poorer countries made do with their surroundings, including mud outdoors, or opted for games that did not even require anything, such as tag. Such toys and games had one thing in common – simplicity. They did not require any complex props or machines for participants to enjoy them.

However, in the mid-nineteenth century, there were several technological breakthroughs that contributed to the birth of the earliest video games. Around 1947, Thomas T. Goldsmith Jr. and Estle Ray Mann came up with a “cathode-ray amusement device”[2] that simulates the user shooting at targets referred to as airplanes in the patent they filed for. This cathode ray tube (CRT) technology was also utilised by Alexander S. Douglas in his 1952 computer programme, OXO. Also known as tic-tac-toe or Noughts and Crosses, Douglas used a CRT for a visual display, and his programme allowed players to pit themselves against the computer. Six years later, William Higinbotham made use of an analog computer to imitate an actual tennis game in his game, Tennis for Two, incorporating physics to create a more realistic experience. These innovations are only a few of the earliest games that laid the foundation for their more sophisticated successors. They showed the world a glimpse of how technology could be used to create virtual, interactive simulations that could be continually improved for realism, and were a mere hint of what was to come.

Alongside this, technology as a whole was developing rapidly as well especially, information technology (IT). The 1970s witnessed the release of the earliest arcade games and video game consoles, while personal computers (PCs) were also becoming available commercially towards the 1980s. It was a mere matter of time before video games also became more available as well, despite a crash in 1977, and their success was evident by the total revenue of both the arcade and household game markets in 1982. The figure of US$11.8 billion, which is the equivalent of US$27.3 billion today, far exceeded the annual gross revenues of Hollywood films and popular music (US$3 billion and US$4 billion respectively). In addition, in 1983, Nintendo’s Family Computer, also known as the Nintendo Entertainment System in the US and released not long before the now iconic Super Mario Bros. was as well, sold a whopping 62 million units. Later console releases such as the Game Boy in 1989 and Sony’s PlayStation in 1994 were also positively received, with sales figures for both exceeding 100 million.

Video games also continued to offer more to consumers, with new options such as online gaming, touch screen capabilities and motion sensors opening up up to the present day. It is not difficult to see why traditional toys have mostly been abandoned in favour of joysticks and computers. The former group often requires a degree of imagination or make-believe, especially in the case of dolls and toy figurines, whereas the latter offers a wealth of choices for gamers to immerse themselves in alternate worlds and unique situations. One of their main draws is that they allow players to enter a fictional universe and discover these environments, while virtual abilities are often superior to our real physical capabilities. Digital avatars leap easily across valleys, slash at monsters with weapons and fire at enemies with heavy machine guns, all tasks that we, as ordinary human beings, are unable to do. Who wouldn’t want to believe they could conjure fireballs and lightning bolts by simply inputting commands?

Additionally, many older forms of leisure, including the more physical ones such as tag and sports, are group activities that require the physical presence of companions. Given the increasing pace of modern lives, with a high degree of competitiveness that draws our attention to school and work, it can be difficult to organise group gatherings as we get older. Gaming comes in, letting consumers relax as long as they have a game console, with this accessibility heightened by owning a handheld. The social aspect of play is not neglected as well as gamers have the option of online gaming, while more and more games also feature multiplayer modes. The Nintendo Wii, for example, promotes multiplayer gatherings with the release of a plethora of “party games”, usually collections of minigames with easy-to-learn controls[3].  Thus, it appears that video games are phasing out their non-digital counterparts, causing a failing interest in the latter.

Current Situation

A sizeable 65% of American households play video games[4], and this is a statistic that continues to grow as the industry continues its steady climb. Companies have come up with new products that surpass that of the previous generation of consoles, with the current generation of consoles being especially noteworthy. As of 2011, we are currently at the seventh/eighth generation of video game consoles, a particularly exciting time for consumers with the release of the Wii in 2006 and Microsoft’s Kinect for the Xbox360. The Wii changed the gaming experience by introducing motion control in the form of the Wiimote, a remote controller, while Kinect took it one step further by completely eliminating the need for any sort of controller at all.

The introduction of these two gaming consoles is a key factor in why games are gaining popularity among females as well – 2 in 5 gamers are girls. That translates to a significant 40% of consumers. There has been a slight shift in focus away from action games targeted purely at male gamers to more casual games that cater to consumers from both sexes. Such games also target a wider demographic, and statistics also show that gamers under the age of eighteen only make up one quarter of total gamers, whereas the average age of a gamer stands at 32. Clearly, video games are not enjoyed only by the young, as demographics do not appear to significantly affect the popularity of games. The wide variety of choices for consumers given expanding genres will also only keep increasing, making video games an appealing choice for leisure. They already offer a visually and aurally immersive experience for gamers with the opportunity to step into alternate worlds as far as the creativity of designers and programmers permit. This is in stark contrast to traditional toys and books, which frequently require a fair amount of imagination from users.

Nevertheless, what do all of these numbers mean? They imply that video games today are becoming more and more pervasive. With their current reach, they affect us more than they did one or two decades ago. For instance, gaming is becoming more and more accessible with the availability of certain games. Games are becoming more and more common on social networks such as Facebook, with games such as FarmVille and Sims Social attracting more and more users. These applications are free to play as well, allowing Facebook users access with the click of a button. A feature about these social network games is that they often encourage existing users to invite their friends to play by withholding advancement within the game before friend-related requirements are fulfilled. Modern technology has caused the overlapping of video games and social media, the former reaching even into the way we connect with and share information with our friends.

Online gaming is another wildly popular option, with games like World of Warcraft (WoW), MapleStory and Defence of the Ancients (DotA) having millions of subscribers and players. MapleStory, for one, is also free-to-play and easily downloadable off the Internet. Players need only pay real world money should they wish to purchase in-game items that enhance the gaming experience, and such items are optional. This approach allows more casual gamers to continue playing the game free of charge, but also enables the developers to receive earnings from gamers who are willing to spend to power up their virtual avatars. Such is an example of how gaming has evolved economically where some companies adopt a “freemium” approach, giving consumers the choice of how much they want to pay for. However, there is a flip side to this, in that the lack of an actual “limit” on spending can cause problems in the case of addicted gamers.

This brings us to the implications of the gaming industries’ wide reach. Video games are often criticised as causing a myriad of health and social problems, with gaming addictions being among the most prevalent. Such addictions are frequently linked to extreme cases of teenage violence, with themes of violence in games claimed to exert negative influences on young, impressionable minds. A study by Gentile, Lynch, Linder & Walsh in 2004 stated that teenagers who were exposed to gaming violence for extended periods of time were prone to greater aggression, which manifested in the form of confrontations with teachers and fights with classmates[5]. However, separate studies conducted by the Indiana University School of Medicine and Kansas State University suggested a more inconclusive stance on gaming violence having a definitive role in elevated aggression[6].  Rather, there was little difference when comparing brain activity and emotional arousal between children exposed to violent images on television and on video games. Perhaps, then, video games are not solely to blame for any perceived hostility; it is more of a combination of various media with objectionable content that may cause hostility in the young.

Bright, flashing graphics in video games have also attracted complaints as they can cause epileptic fits, especially in young children. However, as it is likely difficult for companies to completely abolish such visual effects in games given that some rely on aesthetics as a main selling point, most if not all companies do put health warnings on the packaging of their games, at the very least. The onus would then fall on the parents or guardians of children at risk to take care of them and monitor them carefully should they be allowed to proceed with video games.

Yet video games are not all bad. The expansion of video games into new genres includes a foray into educational games that are alleged to be beneficial for players. An example of this is Brain Age, one of the earliest Nintendo DS games. The game involved short “brain exercises” that players were encouraged to do once a day in order to keep their mind sharp, and these exercises included memory work and solving simple mathematical equations quickly. Secondly, the introduction of new video game systems may also have positive impacts on the health of users instead. The Nintendo Wii has a few “active” video games such as Wii Fit and Wii Sports that simulate sports and other physical activities. Through the games, players also experience a mini-workout of sorts, having to perform actions such as mimicking the swing of a tennis racket. And a recent study by the American Heart Association gives the organization reason to believe that such games are effective in promoting a more active lifestyle for sedentary individuals via the provision of a “gateway to other forms of physical activity”[7]. 58% of individuals surveyed had actually started doing exercise in real life, be it walking or jogging, signaling a significant improvement after exposure to these fitness video games. In a way, video games connect consumers to another mode of play in a more convenient way, as they need not step out of their house to engage in physical activity. Thus, video games can be an effective avenue through which positive messages can be transmitted as well.

The video game scene today tells us a few things: 1. They are extremely prevalent, presenting themselves in aspects of our lives even if we do not personally own any sort of console or game; 2. There are both good and bad implications of playing video games. As they are unlikely to experience any sort of slump soon, with the current success of the industry, society must learn to deal with the negative effects of video games. A closer examination leads us to conclude that oftentimes, all that is required is more careful observation of children playing these games to manage the detriments. This would allow society to continue to enjoy the positives of video gaming, which has undeniably left its impact on not just play, but perhaps also other parts of our lifestyles.

Future Considerations

While economics may suggest that financial crises will spell disaster for video games, generally considered to be non-necessary luxuries, it remains relatively unlikely that the industry will suffer any crippling crashes in the years ahead. Since the crash of 1977, gaming technologies have continued to develop at an awesome pace as the industry’s giants remain locked in tough competition. As things stand now, the future of gaming actually looks very bright for fans as the industry is booming and continues to grow – worldwide revenue is expected to swell to a staggering US$91 billion by 2015[8].

The potential of such huge profits also serves as an effective incentive for the likes of Nintendo and Sony to constantly keep up with their competitors through research and development for even newer products. And this, once again, spells greater gaming options for consumers. As high-tech innovations, video games will continue to develop rapidly alongside technology as a whole, and perhaps at paces even faster than we can imagine. Game designers and developers have already proven that they are limited only by their own imagination and the technology available. Combine this with how technological boundaries are constantly being challenged, and the possibilities are endless.

Looking back at what the gadgets that we do have, Nintendo’s 3DS has successfully found a way to deliver a glasses-free 3D experience. Its predecessor, the Nintendo DS, has a microphone where games like Brain Age utilise voice recognition technology. Lastly, Kinect has made a breakthrough with controller-free gaming. Perhaps in the near future, developers will be able to come up with games that simulate a fully interactive virtual environment where players will feel as if they have been physically transported elsewhere. There may be no need for television displays or screens; users would interact with the virtual environment with their own senses. All they would need may be a helmet-like device that transmits these images and sounds to the user.

It is also likely that as gaming rises above the music and television industries, some features of the latter forms of entertainment may begin to crossover and meld with gaming content[9]. In an article on the future of video gaming, Michael Dolan suggests that advertising may follow consumers as they direct more time to games than television, and musical artistes may also turn to video games to showcase their works as well. With that, is it possible that the similarities between these three main forms of leisure will continue to increase?

Of course, these changes may bring about their own set of problems. Exposing oneself to such an immersive virtual environment may be harmful for the individual’s health the same way 3D images and visuals give some viewers headaches. Critics may also argue that such innovations would also blur the lines between virtual worlds and reality. At the same time, could there be a diminishing of the television and music industries as well, as companies flock to more profitable alternatives? There might then be a further reduction of our options for play, with the rise of video games contributing to the decline in other forms of entertainment?

Still, regardless of the specific changes video games may undergo in the future, it is probably safe to say that they will, as already mentioned, continue to cement their place as a key aspect of modern entertainment. The continued success and lucrativeness of video games will be a main driver for innovation, which in turn ensures the industry’s survival and prosperity. Video games are definitely here to stay.

Conclusion

While it is arguable that alternative forms of play have been phased out by the advent of video games, it remains that more traditional toys are no longer at the height of their popularity. Video games, along with new forms of entertainment like television, are a key contributor to this. With the help of technology, they offer new dimensions of recreation that many older toys and activities simply cannot.

Meanwhile, video gaming has its own pros and cons. Gamers will certainly welcome new developments and introductions, even though they may have to shell out more to pay for these, and the various genres of games ensure there is something for everybody. Of these, educational games suggest that there is more than just mindless indulgence in video games, while “active” games also promote healthy living through exercise, even if it is simulated and in front of a television screen. On the other hand, teenage violence has been associated with games as well, with fingers commonly pointed at video game addictions. Bright flashing images have also been cause for concern, triggering epileptic fits. However, it should still be noted that these cases are in the minority, and must also be managed carefully as video games clearly have the potential to benefit society as well.

It is easy to see that video games will only continue their success in the future as technology continually improves and designers continue to challenge the limits of their creativity. Their popularity ensures a constant demand where consumers await the newest titles that gaming giants have to offer. The video games of tomorrow may astound us today in ways we may not even have thought of at the speed at which technology develops, and developers work at delivering as complete a gaming experience as possible. Of course, new technologies may bring with it a new set of problems, but it is unlikely to be something that cannot be countered with improvements and prudent management.

Will we ever go back to the toys of yesterday? Perhaps not. However, to some, they have their own allure and remain relatively popular among young children, and are an essential part of development as they pick up fundamental interactions and boost their creativity. Sports and books are a little more timeless, each offering a slightly different experience from toys and video games. In closing, whilst video games have definitely transformed play, they have not taken over it to the extent that all other forms of recreation and leisure are rendered obsolete.


[1] Generally refers to individuals born from around 1982 to the 1990s or the year 2000.

#7, frankenfoods

This week’s session began with a short but humourous cartoon portraying humans as a disease the Earth was afflicted with, and that Man’s abuse of nature and the environment would eventually destroy the Earth.

Selfishness is the very reason behind many of our problems today, including global warming and poverty. The failure to seriously consider the repercussions of our actions on the environment and self-centred mindsets are some of the key reasons why despite our increased ability thanks to technology and innovations, we remain at an impasse in our attempts to solve world problems. Were we able to put these aside, who knows what we can’t achieve?

One thing I learnt from the session was during the discussion of Prof’s quote: “When we are able to grow the resources we need, we will finally be on the road to sustainability.” Prof also mentioned that sustainability is not just maximising or using our current resources efficiently — it’s also about being able to produce what we need eg. by recycling our waste. Only a cyclical process can help us truly achieve sustainability as we are then able to sustain ourselves and our lifestyles, rather than simply using “the Singapore approach”. And it’s also important to keep in mind that we definitely need to continually assess our situation and adapt these to our needs as the face of the world changes (for instance, majority of the world’s population now lives in urban environments, suggesting a need for infrastructural change to support these shifts).

Another concept that intrigued me was the suggestion that we train and educate farmers to become “farmists” — individuals that receive training to become specialists in using technology to obtain high quality farm outputs. This would potentially allow farming to become an especially lucrative avenue of growth as well. Imagine the implications it would mean for developing countries, whose citizens are often mired in primary industries with low returns! Once the challenges in effecting this transition are overcome, breaking out of the vicious cycle of poverty could spell a new way of life for them.

From my own research for my presentation and from the discussion of the readings, the myth that biotechnology is an absolute necessity for present food production has also been debunked, as I had always been under the impression that it was crucial to meeting the increase in the demand for food. It does, however, remain a valuable tool in managing our resources and food production smartly. And it was, after all, developed for a reason.

Secondly, as reinforced in one of the oral presentations, farmers should be consulted for their inputs with regard to agrotechnology as well. They provide a different perspective on farming and related sectors with their own special set of skills and knowledge, and I feel there is plenty to be learnt from those who have been working in the fields for many more years than most scientists in their laboratories. I would have liked to hear more about what my classmates thought about this!

So glad to have my individual presentation out of the way! But now it’s time to get cracking on my individual review report.

8/10.

#6, résumé in my cells

The lesson opened with the showing of a two-part video titled the Emergence of and Innovations in Disease Management done by some of Prof’s ex-students from his time at USC. Some of the current medical technologies touched upon in the video really captured my attention, such as monitoring technology (which was revisited in one of the student presentations later on) and pill pets. Will definitely be giving the videos a second watch and reading up a little more on these later in the week!

Prof also gave a very interesting introduction to the BioBusiness industry, before we focused on today’s area of interest, namely the biomedical and healthcare sector. We also touched upon market facts, and global trends with respect to diseases. Chronic diseases reminded me of a reading in Lesson 4, which mentioned lifestyle diseases, and the parallels are no coincidence, given that developed societies get better at controlling the spread of contagious diseases. Naturally then, the occurrence of chronic diseases become increase in proportion. The lecture also mentioned the role of innovation in BioBusiness, with Prof sharing some stats.

One thing that definitely caught my interest was the Wellness Approach to the biomedical sciences. In the past, research & development in this area was more often a consequence of people contracting diseases. R&D was required to find cures to help these patients. Now, however, scientists and experts have the foresight to try and preempt this by “keeping well people well”, in Prof’s words. People have realised that there is no need to wait for these diseases to be caught before they can be conquered. In other words this is an extension of the popular saying that prevention is better than cure. It’s certainly fascinating to learn about how people have changed their ways of thinking as we develop.

Another instance of changing mindsets with time with regards to the BioBusiness industry was the increasing recognition of traditional medicines such as TCM and herbal remedies, as explored by both the prof and a classmate in her presentation. I feel that at times, technology has a way of exposing our human weaknesses. In this case, we tend to get ahead of ourselves, embracing modern medicine (and its Western influences) at the expense of “outdated” traditional alternatives. However, as diseases show us the limitations of Western technology that we have come to rely on, we are forced to take a step back and reevaluate our options. TCM and herbal medicine are on the rise, and slowly but surely, they are playing an increasingly key role in the biomedical sector as the world begins to open up and recognise its benefits. It also makes one wonder if we could have made better progress tackling global health and medical problems if we had seen modern and traditional medicine as possibly complementary, rather than mutually exclusive.

Moving on, I definitely enjoyed all five of my classmates’ presentations today, with the discussion questions providing meaningful food for thought as they had sparked off a multitude of opinions and contributions. One of them today also reminded me of a book I’d read a few months ago. The presentation on life expectancy and immortality brought me back to a young adult novel on dystopian fiction. The community the book is set in controls almost every aspect of its civilians’ lives, including what they eat, what they work as, who they marry, and also when they die, all supposedly for the optimum functioning of their society.

This book is titled Matched and is written by Ally Condie (with respect to the purpose of this blog and this entry, I wouldn’t recommend this book as it focuses on romance). People automatically die when they reach their eightieth birthday, a day these senior citizens spend with family before they pass away. I’m not sure how true this is in our reality, but the narrator in the book states that research has shown that eighty is the optimum age of death — you live old enough to have had sufficient experience for a fulfilling life, but you also die before you start feeling useless and feeling like a burden to society.

The specifying of an age of death was pretty fascinating in itself, but when I read about that in the novel, it got me thinking whether I’d want to know when I’d die as well. And I think I might, because I’d have a better idea on what I’d want to do in the years leading up to my death. Opposing opinions raised today in class, though, were also very insightful as they brought up points I’d never considered before, such as the removal of some of the unpredictability in life.

Today’s fourth presentation also taught me something I’d never even known existed before, namely the introduction of mHealth, or mobile healthcare. In certain ways, it’s an ingenious brainchild from the marriage of ICT and healthcare that vastly improves the availability and accessibility of healthcare which has for far too long been a stumbling block in healthcare experts and professionals’ bid to reach out. I was really enthralled by the possibilities of mHealth, if only it had a real window of opportunity to be adopted more widely. mHealth is one thing I’ll be eagerly looking forward to in the future, though, should efforts to promote its widespread adoption be successful. Even if it is not a cure-all panacea to all our healthcare problems, especially where face-to-face doctor-patient consultations are required to ascertain the exact condition of the patient, it will undeniably be a powerful tool in fighting diseases and improving healthcare options. Imagine the lives that could be saved or more simply, work hours that could be recovered if patients have mHealth at their disposal. When properly equipped with the know-how to maximise the technology at our fingertips (literally), the authorities’ attention can be turned to other problems that require attention, both medical and non-medical.

In closing, while I would have liked to hear more about the biomedical science revolution, I found today’s lesson to be thoroughly engaging and my favourite by far 🙂 I think today was a bit of an eye-opener for me as well as Prof, given his experience as a physician, was also able to share plenty of experiences and insights during the session. Though I may also be slightly biased because of my personal interest in today’s topic, I’d rate today a 9.5/10!

#5, project natal

Project Natal is a short 3-4 minute clip showing how a boy named Milo interacts with a woman called Claire. This sounds like an everyday event, but in actuality, Milo is a virtual entity who is able to sense Claire’s emotions from her voice and respond to her.

It’s amazing to think about how far we’ve come in terms of technological development. Project Natal has managed to create some sort of virtual consciousness in the form of Milo that takes voice recognition one step further along to emotion recognition. In the video, Milo and Claire appear to interact in a very natural way, and Milo is even able to react to Claire’s drawing after the system scans it in. We always argue that machines can never replace humans because they have no emotion, but could this be the start of something that overthrows this traditional paradigm?

Watching the video in class left me in awe even after I had already watched in prior to today’s lesson. In addition, Prof’s comments in his blogpost really got me thinking about the possibilities that could arise from the availability of such technology, and they really are endless. In particular, one quote from the video that really exemplified this for me was when Peter Molyneux said, “This is true technology that science fiction has not even written about.” Scientists and programmers have begun innovating in such a way that even writers have not imagined, even we have barely dared to imagine. It’s a stunning example of how human imagination has managed to blur the lines between the virtual and the real world.

Moving on from the video, Prof gave us a comprehensive introduction into ICT, or information and communication technology. The concept of the Internet as Web 1.0, 2.0 and even 3.0 was really intriguing as I’d never heard of it before class. Plus, the idea of the Internet evolving to cater to social trends and demand is yet another thing I’ve learnt from this module that I’ve always known at the back of my head but yet to consciously realise. It always feels humbling when I do understand such things!

ICT and its future potential was also further discussed with respect to gaming, wireless technologies, interactive telecommunications and information systems. But perhaps the most enlightening concept for me was cloud computing, as it was something I had not previously known.

Dropbox is an example of an application that takes advantage of cloud computing. It takes advantage of the connectivity of computers in a particular database and eliminates the need for users to rely on actual harddrive space, which is easily exhausted as consumers seek lighter laptops (eg. the Macbook Air) that compromise harddrive space for a lighter weight and improved portability. However, security issues may also arise from using cloud storage and hence, we need to utilise it with care as well.

Prof also shared with us the concept of knowledge management with respect to the job scope of a Chief Knowledge Officer in a company. This process essentially comprises of four stages, namely data → information → knowledge → wisdom. Next, the class also briefly discussed ICT as a driver of world change. It is not difficult to see that its potential as a change agent has barely been fulfilled, be it in alleviating poverty, education or healthcare. And this is a disappointing observation, given that knowledge revolutions in the past have magnified efficiency and productivity by a staggering 25-fold. ICT is a tremendously powerful tool that can be a valuable ally in achieving key objectives both national and international. Perhaps educating people on the significance of ICT and its potential key role would go some way in ensuring that these technologies are able to be utilised to their maximum potential, especially since it has the ability to drive change for the better in so many diverse aspects. At the moment, its application in such areas looks to be limited and in the infant stages, so increased awareness will be crucial in improving the speed of adoption of ICT in problem-solving on a greater scale.

Following the subsequent discussion on our readings, we had the opportunity to listen to four oral presentations, and of these, I was especially struck by the final presentation on free digital goods. It really brought to light for me how Google and other ICT MNCs are able to provide free services while still remaining sustainable, especially with the Freemium strategy in place for many digital goods and services. Personally, I agree that it is a very smart method which successfully allows consumers to decide how much they want to pay for a good/service, while the company is also able to reap profits that keeps their business afloat. My younger sister used to play the online role-playing game MapleStory frequently, where users can also use real money to pay for in-game enhancements, whether aesthetic or gameplay-related, or choose to download the game and continue to enjoy it for free without these benefits as they are not necessary to enjoy the experience of playing MapleStory. The ICT business landscape may even give birth to new business strategies in the future as the landscape changes and evolves with time. Perhaps some time could have been given to ponder the probability of this occurring — will companies in the future find the need to source for different sources of revenue? As consumers become more accustomed to the idea of free digital goods, will ICT firms be able to always remain sustainable even though the Freemium card is played?

ICT is probably the first thing people associate with technology, and it’s pretty easy to see why. The possibilities it has are also endless, and it is a very important agent of world change that can effect change that we might not even be able to imagine yet.

8/10.

individual topical review paper outline: technology&play

Topic: Technology & Play — How Video Games Have Transformed Play

i. Innovation of Interest: Video games, and an examination of how they have impacted our leisure options.

ii. Rationale for Selection: It’s hard to challenge the prevalence of video games in the lives of majority of Gen Y youths. Increasing affluence has put more and more computers, consoles and handhelds in the homes of many in the developed world, and they remain popular among consumers. Compared to the lifestyles from just a few decades ago, where children contented themselves with a ball and more traditional forms of toys, we have many more leisure options today and among these, video games have become a prominent form of entertainment.

iii. Proposed Approach to Development of Paper

1. Executive Summary
2. Background/Introduction

  •  “All work and no play makes Jack a dull boy.” This oft-quoted adage helps to highlight the importance of play in our lives.
  • Play: How children explore their surroundings, how we prefer to enjoy our free time, deriving pleasure in the process
  • Introduction of video games has broadened our options for leisure, and today’s gaming industry is booming
  • Is this a good or a bad thing?
  • Can we, as society, adequately deal with these impacts?

3. Historical Perspective

  • Forms of play: Television, traditional toys (eg. dolls, action figurines), books (especially fiction, comics), sports, even simple games like chapteh and five stones in 1960s’ Singapore
  • As time went on, IT was also developed. Computers were invented and eventually made commercially available
  • This also gave birth to gaming technology (no exact date as several related technologies were developed)
  • Early gaming technologies: Cathode ray tube (CRT) amusement device in 1947, interactive graphical programmes, early arcade video games
  • First generation video game consoles came out in the 1970s

4. Current Situation

  • In the United States, 65% of households play video games. This percentage continues to grow as gaming giants continue to innovate and develop their products
  • eg. Microsoft’s Xbox 360 has Kinect, which has successfully eliminated the need for gaming controllers, Nintendo’s Wii has managed to incorporate activities not normally associated with video games like exercising into their technology using the Wiimote, as the company works on the upcoming Wii U
  • Online gaming is also a popular option, with games like World of Warcraft, MapleStory and Defence of the Ancients
  • The impression that gamers are predominantly male is a misconception as females make up a sizeable 40% of video game consumers. This suggests that games are gaining popularity among males and females alike, with an increasing variety of games that cater to both sexes
  • Children under 18 also make up only 25% of the gaming population, disproving the myth that video games are enjoyed mainly only by the young
  • As can be seen, the plethora of choices for consumers will only keep increasing, and playing video games is a popular hobby among many in the developed world, regardless of demographics
  • Video games offer a visually and aurally immersive experience for gamers with the opportunity to step into alternate worlds as imagined by designers and programmers, in contrast to books and traditional toys (which require a fair amount of imagination from consumers)
  • However, there are various negative effects associated with gaming, including social and health detriments
  • Examples of these include gaming addictions, whereas concerns include whether action games promote violence, and epileptic fits in children resulting from bright, flashing images from the game screens
  • How then do we cope with these effects?

5. Future Considerations

  • As high-tech innovations, video games will continue to develop rapidly alongside technology, perhaps at paces even faster than we can imagine!
  • Will developers eventually be able to come up with technology that simulates a fully interactive virtual environment where users will feel as if they have been physically transported to a different place?
  • eg. Nintendo’s 3DS is able to project 3D images without the need for glasses whereas in theatres, these glasses are still a requirement to enjoy 3D films. Kinect for the Xbox 360 has also successfully eliminated the need for controllers to enjoy video games. Going back further, the Nintendo DS also has a microphone where games like Brain Age make use of voice recognition technology
  • However will future technologies also give birth to new problems for both individuals and society?
  • The future for video game lovers looks bright given that the industry is booming and continues to grow, and it’s exciting to think of what technologies will be developed next for consumers

6. Conclusion

  • While older toys and forms of leisure cannot be said to have been phased out, it is difficult to say that they remain at their height of their popularity
  • Video games are likely here to stay, given their popularity and how the industry is doing so well
  • Society has to learn to deal properly with their negative impacts, even if new problems may arise

7. References

Gaming Statistics

8. Peer Reviewers

  • Eliza Chay
  • Keith Ng
  • Georgina Low

(To be updated as we go along.)

#4, pax americana

As always, the lesson opened with a brief recap of previously covered content, including the prof’s Rising/Falling Star model (which was to be revisited again later). Organisations have to be prepared to move forward, and the class recognised that the model also characterised the natural pattern of things: rise, peak, followed by a fall unless there was the constant presence of innovation. Be it firms, sports teams or individuals, those who failed to recognise change and adapt effectively to it were almost certain to be on the decline.

Prof then raised some key guiding questions to set the scope of today’s focus on change: What causes change? What drives it? And how can we, as individuals in society and various organisational bodies, respond to change and adapt to it?

I found the bird analogies, that Prof Shahi attributed to the three types of unique behaviour of people who encountered change, very interesting. The first kind of people embraced change, recognising its significance, and their proactivity helped them to stay ahead of the rest and also swoop in to succeed, like an eagle. This was the ideal behaviour to volatility. The second type of people, the “ostriches”, often opt to do nothing despite being knowing when changes were occurring, and thus also deprived themselves of various opportunities that would otherwise have benefited them. Finally, the last group of individuals are those who completely failed to see change when it happens and gets caught off-guard when it does. Their inability to adapt likens them to the very much extinct dodo bird.

Next, it was concluded after a brief discussion of a summary of the global drivers of change to 2060 (by the Project to assist Natural England) that we live in a world full of uncertainty — it’s hard to predict for sure what will happen even in the next two years. There are far too many “wild card” factors that can throw expectations about the future into disarray, even as experts try as much as they can to figure out what may happen in the next half-century or so.

Another thing in that same particular reading that caught my interest were lifestyle diseases, which are diseases that become more common as countries become more and more developed. Examples include Alzheimer’s, asthma, cancer and obesity, and while I must admit this is not a completely foreign thing to learn about, I had never consciously thought about it before (making it another thing to add to the ever-growing list of Things I Knew But Never Thought About). If both DCs and LDCs have their own set of problems when it comes to health, then does this mean that no matter how developed a civilisation may be and regardless of the technology at the world’s disposal, is it possible that we can never completely stamp out disease? Even when we have found a cure to AIDS and cancer, will there be other new diseases that arise to challenge our scientists and doctors?

Separately, one important point that was raised today is that plenty of our drivers for world change loop back to the essential problem of scarcity and the immense strain on our resources. Many of the global influencers raised in the reading are in some way related to that. For instance, population demographics: The world’s population is forecasted to continue increasing until it peaks at around 10 billion within the next 90 years, exacerbating resource strain. This in turns intensifies the need to adopt alternative, more sustainable forms of energy. At the same time, people will also become wealthier and food security issues are certain to arise. Evidently, a lot of concerns are linked to scarcity and resource allocation.

Moving on, in the second half of the lesson, we were shown a video on the importance of a leader’s followers titled First Follower: Leadership Lessons from Dancing Guy. While the clip starts off a little queer, with a man dancing alone in a field amidst other people relaxing, eventually more and more people join him in his effort (it may also be noted that while the number of people joining initially was very small, this numbers increases almost exponentially towards the end). The importance of a leader’s followers, especially his first follower, is best exemplified by the following quote from the video: “If the leader is a flint, then the first follower is a spark that starts the fire.”

We then moved on to change leadership and change management, with a brief introduction and a discussion to distinguish the two (which was also further elaborated on during the last presentation of the day on this topic). While some people had mixed opinions on which of the two concepts were more important, it was generally agreed as well that both were necessary to an organisation’s success. Not only do we need to respond to change, we also need to respond to it in an adequate way (traditional vs modern models of responding to change).

One area from which I feel we could have benefited with more discussion was the final question at the end — Have recent global changes changed the way we do things? Or will we simply go back to traditional methods time after time in a “business as usual”-esque fashion?

The discussion we did have, however, definitely raised some thought-provoking points. I agree wholeheartedly that skills such as knowing how to use a computer, which may have been an asset fifteen years ago, are no longer a real advantage in the workplace — it’s much more of a requirement since the skill is so prevalent in the knowledge-based economy of this Information Age. Going back to the 3 types of responses to change, I feel that there are actually a lot of people who do recognise change and the need for it, but what exactly is the underlying problem? Our resistance to change. Why bother changing when we can just take the easier, tried-and-tested way out? It’s also difficult to deny that this is part of human nature, and consequently, one of our toughest challenges is in evoking the crucial change in mindset, especially in the older generation and their companies.

With that, I’d rate today a 7.5/10.

 

#3, valley, summit, or cloud?

After a brief recap of the past two lessons, Prof Shahi launched us into today’s first topic, namely Industrial Development and Sustainability. We then listened to two individual oral presentations before we delved into Innovation Management after the break. Brief discussion on some of the recommended readings followed before the session was rounded off by three more presentations.

Firstly, a working definition of sustainable development was established: sustainable development is understood to be the maximising of value creation without reducing the options available to future generations. The Story of Stuff has Annie Leonard talking about how things are extracted, then produced, distributed, and consumed, before they are finally disposed of. In other words, it’s clearly a linear process that explains what happens to, well, stuff. Sustainable development, on the other hand, aims to turn this into a cyclical process, as our planet’s limited resources indicate that linearity will not serve us infinitely as all these would surely run out. However, having relied on traditional sources of energy for so long, calls to go green are met with resistance as green technology requires high capital for R&D and implementation. This raises the question: Can we go green but also prosper at the same time?

This was also covered during our discussion of the prof’s readings. I do think it is possible, but developed and less developed countries (DCs and LDCs respectively) will probably go about this differently. Developed countries must be prepared for a trade-off of objectives in the short run — short term economic growth may have to be compromised to a certain extent in order to obtain innovation related to sustainability. There are huge sunk costs associated with R&D that are likely to affect the degree of economic growth a country may enjoy. In addition, as mentioned in The Story of Stuff as well, the growing wealth and influence of private firms and MNCs often causes a shift in the focus of national governments to cater to these corporations rather than the citizens they serve or the environment.

Nevertheless, foresight must be employed here so that the country can benefit in the future. Since most if not all DCs already enjoy substantial economic stability, I believe they should be able to absorb any short run losses in order to achieve an objective for the long run. Reluctance has to be combated by the actions of policymakers, as was also mentioned in class: namely, that the government needs to figure out the right incentives that will motivate firms and consumers to take a step in the right direction.

Of course, this implies that LDCs will find it harder to take part in green initiatives, given that they have other priorities. It’s highly likely that economic growth and stability will remain higher on their agenda, and perhaps even eroding the income disparity even after that has been achieved. Embracing green technology is probably not high on their to do list. However, the pre-assigned class reading of the United Nations paper on Industrialisation as an Engine of Growth for Developing Countries raises an interesting concept: the advantage of backwardness. This suggests that while DCs are the main innovators and hence are the first to employ these new technologies, LDCs still enjoy an advantage over their wealthier counterparts. This edge refers to the fact that LDCs may capitalise on the existence of the technologies by the time they are able to actually make use of them, and are able to utilise them without the hefty costs associated with R&D at its initial stages. Personally, I feel it’s a fascinating phenomenon that actually suggests that LDCs do not always get the short end of the stick, as many seem to be of the opinion of.

Class resumed after the halftime with Prof introducing us to innovation management: the creation of value by improving the efficiency of translating promising concepts into real, high value products and services. We also went through Prof Shahi’s Landscape Model for Technology Assessment, which classified innovative opportunities into either Valley, Summit or Cloud Opportunities. Market-driven and technology-driven innovations were also revisited, and the following question was posed: Should innovation be technology- or market-driven? However, there was only some brief discussion on the issue, and I would have been interested to find out more on my classmates’ insights!

Next, the discussion revolving around our required readings also provided me with plenty of insights and takeaways. For instance, we, as citizens of the globe, have little choice but to take environmental degradation into account if we want to truly prosper; not just in the short run, but also the long run. In addition, without government visionaries at the helm of development projects or a risk-taking investor, it is nigh impossible to bring about innovation. This probably explains widespread resistance to change even though it is not difficult to realise the value of innovation.

Prof then proceeded to go through the R-D-A Translation Process, which broke down innovation into three main stages: 1) Research, the generation of new ideas; 2) Development, the translation of these insights and understanding to their practical application, and 3) Application, the commercial/social use of these new technologies. I thought this was a pretty useful way to look at innovation, as it can sometimes feel like a vague concept that is difficult to clearly define unless careful thought is given to it.

I found the three oral presentations that ended today’s lesson highly engaging and very enjoyable to listen to, partly as they were related to Apple’s success, the negative effects of aviation on the environment, and Google buying up Motorola, all of which helped broaden my general knowledge and were very much thought-provoking. The presenters also gave us plenty of food for thought, including questions such as what Steve Jobs’ departure meant for Apple, whether environmental friendliness was a consideration for innovation, as well as what Google’s purchase of Motorola, a hardware firm, meant for the market and consumers. Thus, I would rate today’s session a 8/10!